| 2009-10 Season Preview: Denver Nuggets Authored by Andrew Perna - October 26, 2009 - 12:07 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: +7.1, 9th
Key Additions: Joey Graham, Arron Afflalo
Key Subtractions: Linas Kleiza, Dahntay Jones
Key Rookies: Ty Lawson
Probable Starters: Chauncey Billups, J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin and Nene
Point Guard: The Denver Nuggets pulled off the one of best trades of the decade when they sent Allen Iverson to the Detroit Pistons for Chauncey Billups last November. His numbers have never told the whole story, as the influence Billups has on the court is impossible to miss. The Pistons didn’t lose a step simply because the Iverson Experiment was a failure, but rather because their unquestioned leader was suddenly in Denver.
He has never been a tremendous shooter, but can score and is one of the toughest point guards in the NBA. His range extends to the three-point line, but he’s not just a jump-shooter. Denver won four more games last season than they did in 2007-08, but Billups made a real different in the postseason, where he always has.
Billups led the Nuggets with 9.9 Win Shares in 77 regular-season games. The Lakers ousted Denver in the Western Conference Finals, but not before the guard recorded 3.2 Win Shares in 16 postseason games. Over the course of the season, the Nuggets were +3.6 points per 100 possessions. Billups was +3.5 per 100 possessions, slightly lower than the team average, but this is a case where statistics don’t tell the whole story.
You’ve seen me use points per 100 possessions often while going through my previews, but this is the first time where I was shocked to see a player’s rate lower than his team’s average. Without Billups, the Nuggets do not advance all the way to the Conference Finals. Let alone push the eventual NBA champions to six games.
Anthony Carter is a very solid backup, but it’s unlikely that rookie Ty Lawson will remain behind the veteran for the entire season. Carter is a good defender, but lacks a strong offensive game. Lawson will bring Denver a change of pace at point guard, thanks to his superior speed.
Depending on how he adjusts to the NBA, Lawson could help keep Billups fresh as the postseason approaches. Nuggets coach George Karl will undoubtedly look to reduce the veteran’s minutes after he saw his numbers decline in the Conference Finals.
Swingmen: The Nuggets will be without J.R. Smith for the first seven games of the regular season due to suspension, but they should be able to tread water without him. Denver acquired Arron Afflalo in yet another deal with Detroit and they signed Joey Graham, who will likely play heavy minutes over the first two weeks of the season.
Smith is an above-average scorer, but does little else extremely well. He would prefer not to pass the basketball and loses focus on the defensive end all too often. Over the last three seasons, Smith has averaged close to and over 20 points per 36 minutes and he surprisingly had a better net points per 100 possessions (+8.3) than Billups in 2008-09.
Carmelo Anthony is Denver’s most popular and talented player, but he’s yet to reach the individual and team success of fellow 2003 draft class members LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.
Anthony has an incredible offensive game. He’s tough to stop around the basket and has improved his range over the last five seasons. He took just 170 threes last year, but hit 37.1% of them. The main criticism has always been his lack of discipline, maturity and defensive hustle. He silenced his detractors slightly last season and appears more focused and driven than ever this preseason. If some of Billups’ intangibles rub off on Carmelo, we may look back on last November’s Nuggets-Pistons trade as one of the most influential in league history.
Renaldo Balkman has turned into a nice ‘glue guy’ for the Nuggets, but fans in New York will still never forget the day their Knicks snatched him around with the 20th pick in 2006. The player taken immediately after Balkman? Rajon Rondo.
Denver has plenty of scoring on the wing, which makes Balkman’s hustle and rebounding skills invaluable. Afflalo has a good shot, but hasn’t fulfilled moderate expectations through his first two NBA seasons. Graham has been a constant in Toronto’s rotation and he should edge Afflalo for the minutes left behind by Linas Kleiza.
The Wilmington, Delaware native is extremely athletic, which fits right in with many of Denver’s players. He isn’t going to explode on any given night, but he’ll chip in a few key baskets here and there and is more than capable of playing solid minutes.
Frontcourt: The Nuggets did well without Marcus Camby, who they traded to the Clippers for peanuts last offseason. They were ripped apart for the deal, but Camby ended up missing 20 games and his rebounding and block numbers decreased in Los Angeles.
Kenyon Martin missed time as well, but his numbers remained consistent. He isn’t as explosive as he was when he emerged in New Jersey, but he can still run the floor and flush one with authority. He doesn’t have a reliable jumper, but the nine-year veteran never did. Speaking of Martin’s tenure in the NBA; there any many more miles on his tires than the average 31-year-old.
Nene is one of the most inspiring stories in the league, having made it all the way back from cancer to have his best season. He doesn’t have great basketball instincts, but often makes up for it with his athleticism. His strength is almost unparalleled. One of his best attributes is his shot selection; he led the league in true shooting percentage in 2008-09. His play dipped a bit in the postseason, but he was coming off a long season following cancer treatment.
Denver would be harder to defend if either Martin or Nene could step out and hit a deep jumper with regularity. Chris Andersen brings great energy off the bench, but has very limited range as well. Malik Allen and Johan Petro will play whatever minutes Martin, Nene and Anderson can’t handle.
Forecast: With Billups firmly entrenched in Denver and guys like Anthony and Nene improving, one would think that the Nuggets would be strong contenders to knock off the Lakers in the West. However, it will be hard for them to repeat their success this season. They were one of three teams to win 54 games, along with the Spurs and Blazers, and will have to get past improved clubs in San Antonio, Portland and Dallas just to have home court advantage.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7.
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